According to some sources, we have only 43 years, 202 days of oil supply left from the time I write this article. This is not counting yet to be discovered reserves that surely exist and improvements in technology that will enable us to extract more oil in future in some of the least accessible deposits. Some sources say peak oil use has already been reached, others 2030 or beyond (we won’t know for sure). This article says we have 1.6 trillion barrels of recoverable oil left, giving us about 50 years at current demand. However, demand could plateau and extend this time as people switch to further use of electric vehicles. Worldometer is more precise and gives us 47 years from now, so 2071 as the year when we should run out. For natural gas, the figure is 52 years worth left with current known reserves and demand levels. Coal is pegged at 133 years at current consumption levels.
The use of a wake up call for progress in energy innovation is startling though. 2068 or 2071 for oil - a lot needs to be achieved in the meantime to secure energy needs for the planet. For fuel based transport for example, we have no viable commercial alternatives yet that can replace aviation fuel for our aircraft and for heavy lifting and transport equipment and vehicles. Even renewable energy options use lots of rare earth minerals and resources that need mining using heavy machinery and with current technology, that will need fuel from oil to operate the machinery. This part of the argument is without even considering the need for oil for plastic production on which our current lifestyles depend. With this in mind, surely the world’s governments and industry should begin to attempt to reserve oil for those needs to buy humanity more time and organise as such that we do not burn the remaining oil for other energy needs, instead allowing other means to take over. Easier said than done of course but that is where the logic lies.
However, there are arguments that we will consistently discover more reserves, be more efficient with the reserves with have and innovate ourselves long past the years quoted above. Ironically, global warming is likely to make some reserves more accessible, for example in the Arctic region, although there are large risks involved in resource extraction in this region.
It’s hard to imagine a world largely devoid of fossil fuels due to our current dependence on them, it seems to be a matter of time only before the transition to largely fossil fuel free societies need to happen. The main point to question is how much time we have to transition away from fossil fuels, not whether we need to.
Unless there is something in the theories of Superabundance…?
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